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Neretvanac Opuzen vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
FT
2 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
4/7/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen68%
×Draw18%
HNK Hajduk Split II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretvanac Opuzen
2.31
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.92

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 151% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.03
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw
86%
Neretvanac Opuzen or HNK Hajduk Split II
82%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
32%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
45%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
90%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
67%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
40%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
60%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
23%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
83%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.31

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
68%
level
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
14%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neretvanac Opuzen 2 – 0 HNK Hajduk Split II

Neretvanac Opuzen beat HNK Hajduk Split II 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Podvornica in Opuzen.