Neretvanac Opuzen 1–2 GOŠK Dubrovnik

Neretvanac Opuzen

FT

1 – 2

GOŠK Dubrovnik

5/25/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 29Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen54%

×Draw24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neretvanac OpuzenExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Dubrovnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.95

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.68

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.95

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 77% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.56

creates per match

0.86

1.03

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.56

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.86

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.03

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw

79%

Neretvanac Opuzen or GOŠK Dubrovnik

76%

Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik

46%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+

30%

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals

81%

Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals

50%

Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals

24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

61%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

25%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)

72%

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more

54%

level

24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

21%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff