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Neretva Metković vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
2 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
10/2/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 8Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Neretva Metković64%
×Draw21%
Zmaj Makarska15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
2.00
Zmaj Makarska
0.84

Neretva Metković creates 138% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
85%
Neretva Metković or Zmaj Makarska
79%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
36%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
40%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
86%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
59%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
32%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
57%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
21%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
81%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
64%
level
21%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
15%

Neretva Metković at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretva Metković 2–0 Zmaj Makarska

Neretva Metković beat Zmaj Makarska 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.