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Neretva Metković vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
2 – 3
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
11/2/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 11Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Neretva Metković67%
×Draw18%
Zmaj Blato15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
2.44
Zmaj Blato
1.06

Neretva Metković creates 130% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 25 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
85%
Neretva Metković or Zmaj Blato
82%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
33%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
45%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
91%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
70%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
43%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
65%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
29%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
82%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.44

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
67%
level
18%
Zmaj Blato scores more
15%

Neretva Metković at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neretva Metković vs Zmaj Blato

Zmaj Blato beat Neretva Metković 3-2 in Third NL - Jug on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.