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Neretva Metković vs Primorac Biograd — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
1 – 2
Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
11/11/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 13Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neretva Metković55%
×Draw23%
Primorac Biograd22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
1.79
Primorac Biograd
1.04

Neretva Metković creates 72% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Primorac Biograd
1.03

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Primorac Biograd
1.78

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Primorac Biograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
78%
Neretva Metković or Primorac Biograd
77%
Draw or Primorac Biograd
45%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
31%
Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
83%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
53%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
26%
Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
65%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
28%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
71%
Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
55%
level
23%
Primorac Biograd scores more
22%

Neretva Metković at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretva Metković 1–2 Primorac Biograd

Primorac Biograd beat Neretva Metković 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.