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Neretva Metković vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
5/30/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Neretva Metković56%
×Draw22%
Hrvatski vitez21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
1.89
Hrvatski vitez
1.08

Neretva Metković creates 75% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
79%
Neretva Metković or Hrvatski vitez
78%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
44%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
32%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
85%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
56%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
66%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
72%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
56%
level
22%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
21%

Neretva Metković at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretva Metković 8–0 Hrvatski vitez

Neretva Metković beat Hrvatski vitez 8-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.