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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Slaný — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slaný
Slaný
10/9/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 6Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice63%
×Draw20%
Slaný17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.16
Slaný
1.02

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 112% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Slaný
1.39

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Slaný
1.95

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Slaný+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Slaný →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
83%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Slaný
80%
Draw or Slaný
37%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
40%
Slaný wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
88%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
63%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
36%
Slaný 1+ goals
64%
Slaný 2+ goals
27%
Slaný 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
79%
Slaný (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Slaný away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Slaný defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.16

Slaný attack 1.39 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
63%
level
20%
Slaný scores more
17%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neratovice-Byškovice vs Slaný

Neratovice-Byškovice and Slaný drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.