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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Kladno — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kladno
Kladno
8/13/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 2Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice49%
×Draw23%
Kladno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
1.83
Kladno
1.34

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 55 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Kladno
2.02

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Kladno
1.29

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Kladno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Kladno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
72%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Kladno
77%
Draw or Kladno
51%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
27%
Kladno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
84%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
54%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
28%
Kladno 1+ goals
74%
Kladno 2+ goals
39%
Kladno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
63%
Kladno (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Kladno away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Kladno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Kladno attack 2.02 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
49%
level
23%
Kladno scores more
28%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neratovice-Byškovice vs Kladno

Kladno beat Neratovice-Byškovice 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.