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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
PST
09:15
Dobříš
Dobříš
3/7/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 16Stadion Neratovice (Neratovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice79%
×Draw13%
Dobříš8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.90
Dobříš
0.81

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 258% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
92%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Dobříš
87%
Draw or Dobříš
21%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
59%
Dobříš wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
94%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
78%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
54%
Dobříš 1+ goals
56%
Dobříš 2+ goals
19%
Dobříš 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
91%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.90

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
79%
level
13%
Dobříš scores more
8%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neratovice-Byškovice face Dobříš (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Neratovice-Byškovice hosting Dobříš. Match starts March 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Neratovice-Byškovice host Dobříš at Stadion Neratovice (Neratovice).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.