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Dobříš vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
8/22/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 1UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš31%
×Draw23%
Neratovice-Byškovice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.48
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.83

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 66 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
54%
Dobříš or Neratovice-Byškovice
77%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
69%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
14%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
77%
Dobříš 2+ goals
43%
Dobříš 3+ goals
19%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
84%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
54%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
41%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dobříš scores more
31%
level
23%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
46%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Dobříš 0–0 Neratovice-Byškovice

Dobříš and Neratovice-Byškovice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at UMT Dobříš in Dobříš.