Neptūną Klaipėda 2–0 Sūduva II: Result & Stats

Neptūną Klaipėda

FT

2 – 0

Sūduva II

A. Dubickas 82' (OG)

J. Bickus 22'

4/10/2021

1 Lyga · Round 4Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda63%

×Draw21%

Sūduva II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neptūną KlaipėdaExpected goals in this matchSūduva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.88

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.00

Sūduva II

0.88

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 127% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 13 away

1.93

creates per match

0.69

1.06

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.93

Sūduva II

0.69

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.06

Sūduva II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Sūduva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw

84%

Neptūną Klaipėda or Sūduva II

79%

Draw or Sūduva II

37%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

39%

Sūduva II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

86%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

59%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

32%

Sūduva II 1+ goals

59%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

22%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

80%

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

63%

level

21%

Sūduva II scores more

16%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Bickus

26'

M. PapsysMissed penalty

82'

A. DubickasOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Neptūną Klaipėda 2–0 Sūduva II

Neptūną Klaipėda beat Sūduva II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on April 10, 2021.

Goals: J. Bickus (22'), A. Dubickas (82' o.g.).

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.

Neptūną Klaipėda vs Sūduva II — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1 Lyga: Neptūną Klaipėda 2–0 Sūduva II