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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
1 – 1
Šilas
Šilas
5/8/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda48%
×Draw23%
Šilas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.80
Šilas
1.34

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 41 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
71%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Šilas
77%
Draw or Šilas
52%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
26%
Šilas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
83%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
54%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
27%
Šilas 1+ goals
74%
Šilas 2+ goals
39%
Šilas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
63%
Šilas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.80

Šilas attack 1.63 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
48%
level
23%
Šilas scores more
29%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Neptūną Klaipėda 1–1 Šilas

Neptūną Klaipėda and Šilas drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.