Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neptūną Klaipėda vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
3/22/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda60%
×Draw21%
Kauno Žalgiris II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
2.03
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.06

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 92% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
81%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Kauno Žalgiris II
79%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
40%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
36%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
87%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
60%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
33%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
65%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
29%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
76%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.03

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
60%
level
21%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
19%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neptūną Klaipėda vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Neptūną Klaipėda beat Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.