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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
R. Sobowale 88'
B. Asomugha 83'
4/22/2026CupCup · 2nd RoundKlaipedosmiesto Centrinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda8%
×Draw16%
Džiugas Telšiai76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
0.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.31

Džiugas Telšiai creates 285% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
0.20
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
24%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Džiugas Telšiai
84%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
92%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
2%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
45%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
12%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
2%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
90%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
67%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
10%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 0.20 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
8%
level
16%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
76%

Džiugas Telšiai at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
B. Asomugha
88'
R. Sobowale
Neptūną
Džiugas
Oleg Lutkov
Manager: Oleg Lutkov
Andrius Lipskis
Manager: Andrius Lipskis

Neptūną Klaipėda 0 – 2 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Neptūną Klaipėda 2-0 in Cup on April 22, 2026.

Goals: B. Asomugha (83'), R. Sobowale (88').

The match was played at Klaipedosmiesto Centrinis in Klaipeda.