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Nepean vs Canterbury Bankstown — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
0 – 1
Canterbury Bankstown
Canterbury Bankstown
5/3/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13Jamison Park Field 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean29%
×Draw23%
Canterbury Bankstown48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.35
Canterbury Bankstown
1.79

Canterbury Bankstown creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Canterbury Bankstown
1.51

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Canterbury Bankstown
1.58

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Canterbury Bankstown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
52%
Nepean or Canterbury Bankstown
77%
Draw or Canterbury Bankstown
71%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
13%
Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
74%
Nepean 2+ goals
39%
Nepean 3+ goals
15%
Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals
83%
Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals
53%
Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
38%
Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Canterbury Bankstown away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.51 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nepean scores more
29%
level
23%
Canterbury Bankstown scores more
48%

Canterbury Bankstown at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Canterbury Bankstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Nepean 0–1 Canterbury Bankstown

Canterbury Bankstown beat Nepean 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Jamison Park Field 6 in Sydney.