Nepal W 0–2 Myanmar W: Result & Stats

Nepal W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Myanmar W

Tun Win Theingi 64'

Y. Khine 62'

2/26/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesDasharath Rangasala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nepal W14%

×Draw21%

Myanmar W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nepal WExpected goals in this matchMyanmar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.93

Nepal W

0.77

Myanmar W

1.93

Myanmar W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.86

creates per match

3.00

0.86

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Nepal W

0.86

Myanmar W

3.00

allows per match

Nepal W

0.86

Myanmar W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nepal W+0.00on par

Myanmar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepal W ↓

Myanmar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nepal W or draw

35%

Nepal W or Myanmar W

79%

Draw or Myanmar W

86%

Winning margin

Nepal W wins by 2+

4%

Myanmar W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Nepal W 1+ goals

54%

Nepal W 2+ goals

18%

Nepal W 3+ goals

4%

Myanmar W 1+ goals

85%

Myanmar W 2+ goals

57%

Myanmar W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Nepal W (draw refunded)

18%

Myanmar W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepal W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Myanmar W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepal W attack 0.86 + Myanmar W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Myanmar W attack 3.00 + Nepal W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nepal W scores more

14%

level

21%

Myanmar W scores more

65%

Myanmar W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Myanmar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Y. Khine

64'

Tun Win Theingi

Nepal

Myanmar

22

M.

7

⚽

4

5

6

8

9

11

⚽

14

21

23

16

4

12

3

2

14

7

8

18

9

13

Nepal W substitutes

MagarNathJaisiThokarDamaiChaudharyBasnetHamalTamangBhandariAnitaKumari

Manager: Tetsuro Uki

Myanmar W substitutes

LinMyintNaingKhinSandarLuEainNweMoNadiTunKhin