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Nepal W vs Congo DR W — Friendlies Women 2026

Nepal W
Nepal W
CANC
09:00
Congo DR W
Congo DR W
4/12/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nepal W43%
×Draw27%
Congo DR W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepal W
1.38
Congo DR W
1.09

Nepal W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nepal W
0.86
Congo DR W
1.33

allows per match

Nepal W
0.86
Congo DR W
1.89

finishing

Nepal W+0.00on par
Congo DR W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepal W ↓

Congo DR W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nepal W or draw
70%
Nepal W or Congo DR W
73%
Draw or Congo DR W
57%

Winning margin

Nepal W wins by 2+
21%
Congo DR W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nepal W 1+ goals
75%
Nepal W 2+ goals
40%
Nepal W 3+ goals
16%
Congo DR W 1+ goals
66%
Congo DR W 2+ goals
30%
Congo DR W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nepal W (draw refunded)
59%
Congo DR W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepal W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Congo DR W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepal W attack 0.86 + Congo DR W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Congo DR W attack 1.33 + Nepal W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nepal W scores more
43%
level
27%
Congo DR W scores more
30%

Nepal W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nepal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nepal W host Congo DR W

April 12, 2026: Nepal W take on Congo DR W in Friendlies Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.