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Nepal W vs Chinese Taipei W — Friendlies Women 2026

Nepal W
Nepal W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chinese Taipei W
Chinese Taipei W
K. Huang 52'
12/2/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nepal W49%
×Draw26%
Chinese Taipei W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepal W
1.49
Chinese Taipei W
0.99

Nepal W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nepal W
0.86
Chinese Taipei W
1.13

allows per match

Nepal W
0.86
Chinese Taipei W
2.13

finishing

Nepal W+0.00on par
Chinese Taipei W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepal W ↓

Chinese Taipei W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nepal W or draw
75%
Nepal W or Chinese Taipei W
74%
Draw or Chinese Taipei W
51%

Winning margin

Nepal W wins by 2+
24%
Chinese Taipei W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nepal W 1+ goals
77%
Nepal W 2+ goals
44%
Nepal W 3+ goals
19%
Chinese Taipei W 1+ goals
63%
Chinese Taipei W 2+ goals
26%
Chinese Taipei W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nepal W (draw refunded)
66%
Chinese Taipei W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepal W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Chinese Taipei W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepal W attack 0.86 + Chinese Taipei W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Chinese Taipei W attack 1.13 + Nepal W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nepal W scores more
49%
level
26%
Chinese Taipei W scores more
25%

Nepal W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nepal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
K. Huang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nepal W vs Chinese Taipei W

Chinese Taipei W beat Nepal W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on December 2, 2025.

Goals: K. Huang (52').