Nepal U19 W 0–1 India U17 W: Result & Stats

Nepal U19 W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

India U17 W

1/31/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nepal U19 W6%

×Draw13%

India U17 W81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nepal U19 WExpected goals in this matchIndia U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

2.63

Nepal U19 W

0.58

India U17 W

2.63

India U17 W creates 353% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

3.25

2.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Nepal U19 W

0.67

India U17 W

3.25

allows per match

Nepal U19 W

2.00

India U17 W

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nepal U19 W+0.00on par

India U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepal U19 W ↓

India U17 W →

0–04%

0–111%

0–214%

0–312%

0–48%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nepal U19 W or draw

19%

Nepal U19 W or India U17 W

87%

Draw or India U17 W

94%

Winning margin

Nepal U19 W wins by 2+

India U17 W wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Nepal U19 W 1+ goals

44%

Nepal U19 W 2+ goals

12%

Nepal U19 W 3+ goals

India U17 W 1+ goals

93%

India U17 W 2+ goals

73%

India U17 W 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Nepal U19 W (draw refunded)

India U17 W (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nepal U19 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

India U17 W away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nepal U19 W attack 0.67 + India U17 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

India U17 W attack 3.25 + Nepal U19 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

Nepal U19 W scores more

level

13%

India U17 W scores more

81%

India U17 W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "India U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff