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NEOM vs Damac — Pro League 2025

NEOM
NEOM
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Damac
Damac
1/30/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 19King Khalid Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM49%
×Draw25%
Damac26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
1.62
Damac
1.11

NEOM creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

NEOM
1.18
Damac
0.82

allows per match

NEOM
1.41
Damac
2.06

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Damac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
74%
NEOM or Damac
75%
Draw or Damac
51%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
26%
Damac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
80%
NEOM 2+ goals
48%
NEOM 3+ goals
22%
Damac 1+ goals
67%
Damac 2+ goals
30%
Damac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
65%
Damac (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Damac away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 1.18 + Damac defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.62

Damac attack 0.82 + NEOM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NEOM scores more
49%
level
25%
Damac scores more
26%

NEOM at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: NEOM 3–0 Damac

NEOM beat Damac 3-0 in Pro League on January 30, 2026.

The match was played at King Khalid Sports City in Tabuk.