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NEOM vs Al Safa — Division 1 2018

NEOM
NEOM
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al Safa
Al Safa
3/3/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 24King Khalid Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM63%
×Draw21%
Al Safa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
2.02
Al Safa
0.91

NEOM creates 122% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

NEOM
2.24
Al Safa
0.94

allows per match

NEOM
0.88
Al Safa
1.79

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Al Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Al Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
84%
NEOM or Al Safa
79%
Draw or Al Safa
37%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
39%
Al Safa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
87%
NEOM 2+ goals
60%
NEOM 3+ goals
33%
Al Safa 1+ goals
60%
Al Safa 2+ goals
23%
Al Safa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
80%
Al Safa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al Safa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 2.24 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Al Safa attack 0.94 + NEOM defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

NEOM scores more
63%
level
21%
Al Safa scores more
16%

NEOM at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEOM vs Al Safa

NEOM beat Al Safa 5-1 in Division 1 on March 3, 2025.

The match was played at King Khalid Sport City Stadium in Tabouk.