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NEOM vs Al Okhdood — Pro League 2022

NEOM
NEOM
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
9/18/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 3Hall of Ministry of Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM45%
×Draw27%
Al Okhdood29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
1.42
Al Okhdood
1.08

NEOM creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

NEOM
1.18
Al Okhdood
0.76

allows per match

NEOM
1.41
Al Okhdood
1.65

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
71%
NEOM or Al Okhdood
73%
Draw or Al Okhdood
55%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
22%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
76%
NEOM 2+ goals
41%
NEOM 3+ goals
17%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
66%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
29%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
61%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 1.18 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + NEOM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NEOM scores more
45%
level
27%
Al Okhdood scores more
29%

NEOM at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEOM vs Al Okhdood

NEOM beat Al Okhdood 1-0 in Pro League on September 18, 2025.

The match was played at Hall of Ministry of Sport in Tabuk.