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NEOM vs Al-Hazm — Division 1 2018

NEOM
NEOM
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
Romarinho 56'
M. Al Saad 13'
10/5/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 6King Khalid Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM47%
×Draw24%
Al-Hazm29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
1.67
Al-Hazm
1.28

NEOM creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

NEOM
2.24
Al-Hazm
1.68

allows per match

NEOM
0.88
Al-Hazm
1.09

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
71%
NEOM or Al-Hazm
76%
Draw or Al-Hazm
53%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
24%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
81%
NEOM 2+ goals
50%
NEOM 3+ goals
23%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
72%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
37%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
61%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.09 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 2.24 + Al-Hazm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al-Hazm attack 1.68 + NEOM defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NEOM scores more
47%
level
24%
Al-Hazm scores more
29%

NEOM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Al Saad
56'
Romarinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEOM vs Al-Hazm

NEOM beat Al-Hazm 2-0 in Division 1 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Al Saad (13'), Romarinho (56').

The match was played at King Khalid Sport City Stadium in Tabouk.