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Nenzing vs Schruns — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Nenzing
Nenzing
CANC
13:00
Schruns
Schruns
11/8/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Sportplatz Nenzing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nenzing52%
×Draw20%
Schruns28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nenzing
2.23
Schruns
1.60

Nenzing creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nenzing
2.04
Schruns
1.35

allows per match

Nenzing
1.84
Schruns
2.42

finishing

Nenzing+0.00on par
Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nenzing ↓

Schruns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nenzing or draw
72%
Nenzing or Schruns
80%
Draw or Schruns
48%

Winning margin

Nenzing wins by 2+
31%
Schruns wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nenzing 1+ goals
89%
Nenzing 2+ goals
65%
Nenzing 3+ goals
38%
Schruns 1+ goals
80%
Schruns 2+ goals
47%
Schruns 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nenzing (draw refunded)
65%
Schruns (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nenzing at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nenzing attack 2.04 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.23

Schruns attack 1.35 + Nenzing defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nenzing scores more
52%
level
20%
Schruns scores more
28%

Nenzing at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nenzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nenzing host Schruns

November 8, 2020: Nenzing take on Schruns in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nenzing host Schruns at Sportplatz Nenzing.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.