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Nemunas vs Jonava — Cup 2020

Nemunas
Nemunas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jonava
Jonava
4/12/2025CupCup · 1st RoundPrienų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nemunas4%
×Draw8%
Jonava88%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nemunas
0.85
Jonava
4.00

Jonava creates 371% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Nemunas
0.80
Jonava
5.00

allows per match

Nemunas
3.00
Jonava
0.90

finishing

Nemunas+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nemunas ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Nemunas or draw
12%
Nemunas or Jonava
92%
Draw or Jonava
96%

Winning margin

Nemunas wins by 2+
1%
Jonava wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Nemunas 1+ goals
57%
Nemunas 2+ goals
21%
Nemunas 3+ goals
5%
Jonava 1+ goals
98%
Jonava 2+ goals
90%
Jonava 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Nemunas (draw refunded)
4%
Jonava (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nemunas at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Jonava away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nemunas attack 0.80 + Jonava defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Jonava attack 5.00 + Nemunas defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Nemunas scores more
4%
level
8%
Jonava scores more
88%

Jonava at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Nemunas
Jonava
K. Deltuva
Manager: K. Deltuva
E. Utyra
Manager: E. Utyra

Match Recap: Nemunas vs Jonava

Jonava beat Nemunas 1-0 in Cup on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Prienų stadionas in Prienai.