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Nemunas vs Babrungas — Cup 2020

Nemunas
Nemunas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Babrungas
Babrungas
4/1/2026CupCup · Preliminary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nemunas3%
×Draw8%
Babrungas89%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nemunas
0.68
Babrungas
3.73

Babrungas creates 449% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nemunas
0.80
Babrungas
4.45

allows per match

Nemunas
3.00
Babrungas
0.55

finishing

Nemunas+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nemunas ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–311%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Nemunas or draw
11%
Nemunas or Babrungas
92%
Draw or Babrungas
97%

Winning margin

Nemunas wins by 2+
1%
Babrungas wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Nemunas 1+ goals
49%
Nemunas 2+ goals
15%
Nemunas 3+ goals
3%
Babrungas 1+ goals
97%
Babrungas 2+ goals
88%
Babrungas 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

Nemunas (draw refunded)
4%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nemunas at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Babrungas away — creates 4.45, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nemunas attack 0.80 + Babrungas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Babrungas attack 4.45 + Nemunas defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Nemunas scores more
3%
level
8%
Babrungas scores more
89%

Babrungas at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nemunas vs Babrungas

Babrungas beat Nemunas 2-0 in Cup on April 1, 2026.