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Neman vs Slavia Mozyr — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
5/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Neman45%
×Draw27%
Slavia Mozyr29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.40
Slavia Mozyr
1.06

Neman creates 32% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 112 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
Slavia Mozyr
1.28

allows per match

Neman
0.84
Slavia Mozyr
1.49

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Neman or draw
71%
Neman or Slavia Mozyr
73%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
55%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
21%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
75%
Neman 2+ goals
41%
Neman 3+ goals
17%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
29%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
61%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.28 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neman scores more
45%
level
27%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
29%

Neman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neman vs Slavia Mozyr

Slavia Mozyr beat Neman 2-1 in Premier League on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Neman in Grodno.