Neman 1–0 Slavia Mozyr: Result & Stats | Coppa

Neman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Mozyr

11/1/2023

Coppa · Round of 16Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Neman39%

×Draw27%

Slavia Mozyr34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NemanExpected goals in this matchSlavia Mozyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.19

Neman

1.28

Slavia Mozyr

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

0.38

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Neman

2.00

Slavia Mozyr

2.00

allows per match

Neman

0.38

Slavia Mozyr

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neman+0.00on par

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Slavia Mozyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Neman or draw

66%

Neman or Slavia Mozyr

73%

Draw or Slavia Mozyr

61%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+

17%

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals

72%

Neman 2+ goals

37%

Neman 3+ goals

14%

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

70%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

33%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)

53%

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 2.00 + Slavia Mozyr defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Slavia Mozyr attack 2.00 + Neman defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Neman scores more

39%

level

27%

Slavia Mozyr scores more

34%

Neman at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff