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Neman vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
5/9/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Neman35%
×Draw27%
Ruh Brest38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.23
Ruh Brest
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 29 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Neman
0.84
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Neman or draw
62%
Neman or Ruh Brest
73%
Draw or Ruh Brest
65%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
15%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
71%
Neman 2+ goals
35%
Neman 3+ goals
13%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
73%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
37%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
48%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Neman scores more
35%
level
27%
Ruh Brest scores more
38%

Ruh Brest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Neman 2–4 Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Neman 4-2 in Premier League on May 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Neman in Grodno.