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Neman vs Niva — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Neman
Neman
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Niva
Niva
2/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbol'nyy Manezh Botsor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Neman83%
×Draw11%
Niva6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
3.25
Niva
0.79

Neman creates 311% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Neman
2.50
Niva
0.75

allows per match

Neman
0.83
Niva
4.00

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Niva+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Niva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Neman or draw
94%
Neman or Niva
89%
Draw or Niva
17%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
66%
Niva wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
96%
Neman 2+ goals
83%
Neman 3+ goals
61%
Niva 1+ goals
55%
Niva 2+ goals
19%
Niva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
93%
Niva (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Niva away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 2.50 + Niva defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Niva attack 0.75 + Neman defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Neman scores more
83%
level
11%
Niva scores more
6%

Neman at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Neman
Niva
I. Kovalevich
Manager: I. Kovalevich
A. Prokopyuk
Manager: A. Prokopyuk

Neman 7 – 0 Niva

Neman beat Niva 7-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 12, 2025.

The match was played at Futbol'nyy Manezh Botsor in Brest.