Neman 1–2 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Neman

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

ML Vitebsk

S. Pushnyakov 37'

V. Zhuk 90'

O. Abdullahi 64'

5/30/2026

Premier League · Round 10Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Neman28%

×Draw27%

ML Vitebsk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NemanExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.38

Neman

1.02

ML Vitebsk

1.38

ML Vitebsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 24 away

1.30

creates per match

1.92

0.84

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Neman

1.30

ML Vitebsk

1.92

allows per match

Neman

0.84

ML Vitebsk

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neman+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Neman or draw

55%

Neman or ML Vitebsk

73%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

72%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+

10%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals

64%

Neman 2+ goals

27%

Neman 3+ goals

8%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

75%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

40%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)

38%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neman scores more

28%

level

27%

ML Vitebsk scores more

45%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Pushnyakov↳ V. Tonkevich

57'

D. Radikovskiy← S. Pushnyakov

57'

P. Savitskiy← A. Dayneko

61'

D. Galyata← N. Glushkov

64'

O. Abdullahi↳ D. Galyata

65'

A. Nazarenko← A. Yakimov

68'

Artur Nazarenko

68'

T. Yormie← D. Spataru

69'

M. Kravtsov← O. Evdokimov

71'

Bassekou Diabate

79'

Tito Yormie Jr.

80'

V. Zhuk← I. Moskalenchik

80'

S. Nicholson← B. Diabate

87'

Yan Skibsky

90'

V. Zhuk↳ O. Abdullahi

Possession

Statistics

NemanML

Overview

41%Possession59%

4Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

2On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

Passing

41%Possession59%

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3