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Neman vs FC Minsk — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
6/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Neman48%
×Draw27%
FC Minsk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.42
FC Minsk
0.93

Neman creates 53% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 125 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
FC Minsk
1.02

allows per match

Neman
0.84
FC Minsk
1.54

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

FC Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Neman or draw
75%
Neman or FC Minsk
73%
Draw or FC Minsk
52%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
24%
FC Minsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
76%
Neman 2+ goals
41%
Neman 3+ goals
17%
FC Minsk 1+ goals
61%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
24%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
66%
FC Minsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + FC Minsk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Minsk attack 1.02 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neman scores more
48%
level
27%
FC Minsk scores more
25%

Neman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neman vs FC Minsk

Neman beat FC Minsk 2-1 in Premier League on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Neman in Grodno.