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Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Zhejiang Yiteng — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
5/5/2018League OneLeague One · Round 9Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou53%
×Draw25%
Zhejiang Yiteng22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.94

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 73% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.13
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.80

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.08
Zhejiang Yiteng
2.13

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
78%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Zhejiang Yiteng
75%
Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng
47%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
29%
Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
80%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
48%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
22%
Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
61%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
24%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
71%
Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.13 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
53%
level
25%
Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
22%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1–2 Zhejiang Yiteng

Zhejiang Yiteng beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2-1 in League One on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot).