Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Sichuan Longfor — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
7/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 16Hohhot City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou50%
×Draw25%
Sichuan Longfor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63
Sichuan Longfor
1.08

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.13
Sichuan Longfor
1.07

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.08
Sichuan Longfor
2.13

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Sichuan Longfor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
75%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Sichuan Longfor
75%
Draw or Sichuan Longfor
50%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
26%
Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
80%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
48%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
22%
Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
66%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
29%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
67%
Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Sichuan Longfor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.13 + Sichuan Longfor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.07 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
50%
level
25%
Sichuan Longfor scores more
25%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1–0 Sichuan Longfor

Nei Mongol Zhongyou beat Sichuan Longfor 1-0 in League One on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium in Hohhot.