Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

7/14/2019

League One · Round 17Hohhot City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou39%

×Draw26%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nei Mongol ZhongyouExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.38

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

1.14

creates per match

1.46

1.11

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.14

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.46

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.11

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw

65%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

74%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

61%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

18%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

75%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

40%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

16%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

72%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

37%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

53%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.14 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.46 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

39%

level

26%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

35%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff