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Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
9/28/2019League OneLeague One · Round 27Hohhot City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou44%
×Draw25%
Meizhou Meixian Techand31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.50
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.21

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.13
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.08
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
69%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Meizhou Meixian Techand
75%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
56%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
22%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
78%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
44%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
19%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
70%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
34%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
59%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.13 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
44%
level
25%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
31%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nei Mongol Zhongyou 5–1 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Nei Mongol Zhongyou beat Meizhou Meixian Techand 5-1 in League One on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium in Hohhot.