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Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
4/21/2018League OneLeague One · Round 7Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou52%
×Draw25%
Dalian Transcendence23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.56
Dalian Transcendence
0.94

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 66% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.13
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.08
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
77%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Dalian Transcendence
75%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
48%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
27%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
79%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
46%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
21%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
61%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
24%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
69%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.13 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
52%
level
25%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
23%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1–2 Dalian Transcendence

Dalian Transcendence beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2-1 in League One on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot).