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Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
5/20/2018League OneLeague One · Round 13Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou42%
×Draw27%
Beijing Baxy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.35
Beijing Baxy
1.10

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.14
Beijing Baxy
1.09

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.11
Beijing Baxy
1.57

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
70%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Beijing Baxy
73%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
58%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
20%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
74%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
39%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
15%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
67%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
30%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
58%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.14 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Beijing Baxy attack 1.09 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
42%
level
27%
Beijing Baxy scores more
30%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Beijing Baxy

Nei Mongol Zhongyou and Beijing Baxy drew 2-2 in League One on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot).