Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beijing Baxy vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
9/13/2020League OneLeague One · Round 1Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Beijing Baxy46%
×Draw26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.51
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.11

Beijing Baxy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 38 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.08

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
72%
Beijing Baxy or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
74%
Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
54%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
23%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
78%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
44%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
19%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
67%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
30%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
62%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.08 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
46%
level
26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
28%

Beijing Baxy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Beijing Baxy beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1-0 in League One on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.