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Nehaj vs Rovinj — League #213 2026

Nehaj
Nehaj
FT
4 – 1
Rovinj
Rovinj
5/11/2024League #213League #213 · West - 24Stadion Pod Nehajem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nehaj74%
×Draw16%
Rovinj10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nehaj
2.43
Rovinj
0.77

Nehaj creates 216% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nehaj
2.75
Rovinj
0.78

allows per match

Nehaj
0.75
Rovinj
2.11

finishing

Nehaj+0.00on par
Rovinj+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nehaj ↓

Rovinj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nehaj or draw
90%
Nehaj or Rovinj
84%
Draw or Rovinj
26%

Winning margin

Nehaj wins by 2+
51%
Rovinj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nehaj 1+ goals
91%
Nehaj 2+ goals
69%
Nehaj 3+ goals
43%
Rovinj 1+ goals
54%
Rovinj 2+ goals
18%
Rovinj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nehaj (draw refunded)
88%
Rovinj (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nehaj at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Rovinj away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nehaj attack 2.75 + Rovinj defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.43

Rovinj attack 0.78 + Nehaj defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nehaj scores more
74%
level
16%
Rovinj scores more
10%

Nehaj at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nehaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nehaj 4 – 1 Rovinj

Nehaj beat Rovinj 4-1 in League #213 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Nehajem in Senj.