Nehaj 3–1 Novigrad: Result & Stats | League #213

Nehaj

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Novigrad

4/23/2022

League #213 · West - 21Stadion Pod Nehajem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nehaj80%

×Draw13%

Novigrad7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NehajExpected goals in this matchNovigrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.74

Nehaj

2.88

Novigrad

0.74

Nehaj creates 289% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

2.75

creates per match

0.73

0.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Nehaj

2.75

Novigrad

0.73

allows per match

Nehaj

0.75

Novigrad

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nehaj+0.00on par

Novigrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nehaj ↓

Novigrad →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Nehaj or draw

93%

Nehaj or Novigrad

87%

Draw or Novigrad

20%

Winning margin

Nehaj wins by 2+

60%

Novigrad wins by 2+

Team goals

Nehaj 1+ goals

94%

Nehaj 2+ goals

78%

Nehaj 3+ goals

54%

Novigrad 1+ goals

52%

Novigrad 2+ goals

17%

Novigrad 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Nehaj (draw refunded)

92%

Novigrad (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nehaj at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Novigrad away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nehaj attack 2.75 + Novigrad defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Novigrad attack 0.73 + Nehaj defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Nehaj scores more

80%

level

13%

Novigrad scores more

Nehaj at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Nehaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff