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Negeri Sembilan vs Melaka United — Malaysia Cup 2019

Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
CANC
13:00
Melaka United
Melaka United
11/6/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Negeri Sembilan30%
×Draw23%
Melaka United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Negeri Sembilan
1.37
Melaka United
1.75

Melaka United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.18
Melaka United
1.78

allows per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.73
Melaka United
1.56

finishing

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par
Melaka United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Negeri Sembilan ↓

Melaka United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Negeri Sembilan or draw
54%
Negeri Sembilan or Melaka United
77%
Draw or Melaka United
70%

Winning margin

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+
13%
Melaka United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals
75%
Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals
40%
Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals
16%
Melaka United 1+ goals
83%
Melaka United 2+ goals
52%
Melaka United 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)
39%
Melaka United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Negeri Sembilan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Melaka United away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.18 + Melaka United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Melaka United attack 1.78 + Negeri Sembilan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Negeri Sembilan scores more
30%
level
23%
Melaka United scores more
46%

Melaka United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Melaka United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Negeri Sembilan host Melaka United

November 6, 2021: Negeri Sembilan take on Melaka United in Malaysia Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Negeri Sembilan host Melaka United at Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.