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Negeri Sembilan vs Kelantan United — Malaysia Cup 2019

Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilanadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Kelantan United
Kelantan United
8/20/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Negeri Sembilan57%
×Draw21%
Kelantan United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Negeri Sembilan
2.02
Kelantan United
1.15

Negeri Sembilan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.18
Kelantan United
0.57

allows per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.73
Kelantan United
2.86

finishing

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par
Kelantan United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Negeri Sembilan ↓

Kelantan United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Negeri Sembilan or draw
79%
Negeri Sembilan or Kelantan United
79%
Draw or Kelantan United
43%

Winning margin

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+
34%
Kelantan United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals
87%
Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals
60%
Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals
33%
Kelantan United 1+ goals
68%
Kelantan United 2+ goals
32%
Kelantan United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)
73%
Kelantan United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Negeri Sembilan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Kelantan United away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.18 + Kelantan United defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kelantan United attack 0.57 + Negeri Sembilan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Negeri Sembilan scores more
57%
level
21%
Kelantan United scores more
21%

Negeri Sembilan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Negeri Sembilan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Negeri Sembilan vs Kelantan United

Negeri Sembilan beat Kelantan United 4-2 in Malaysia Cup on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman in Seremban.