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Negeri Sembilan vs Kedah — Malaysia Cup 2019

Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kedah
Kedah
11/1/2022Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Negeri Sembilan34%
×Draw23%
Kedah42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Negeri Sembilan
1.54
Kedah
1.73

Kedah creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.18
Kedah
1.73

allows per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.73
Kedah
1.91

finishing

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par
Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Negeri Sembilan ↓

Kedah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Negeri Sembilan or draw
58%
Negeri Sembilan or Kedah
77%
Draw or Kedah
66%

Winning margin

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+
16%
Kedah wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals
79%
Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals
45%
Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals
20%
Kedah 1+ goals
82%
Kedah 2+ goals
52%
Kedah 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)
45%
Kedah (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Negeri Sembilan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.18 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kedah attack 1.73 + Negeri Sembilan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Negeri Sembilan scores more
34%
level
23%
Kedah scores more
42%

Kedah at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Negeri Sembilan 0–0 Kedah

Negeri Sembilan and Kedah drew 0-0 in Malaysia Cup on November 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman in Seremban.