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Neftochimic Burgas vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
FT
2 – 1
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
11/17/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 15Stadion Lazur (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas57%
×Draw24%
Minyor Radnevo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftochimic Burgas
1.68
Minyor Radnevo
0.84

Neftochimic Burgas creates 100% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas
2.31
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas
0.69
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw
81%
Neftochimic Burgas or Minyor Radnevo
76%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
43%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
32%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
81%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
50%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
24%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
57%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
21%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
75%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 2.31 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.68

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more
57%
level
24%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
19%

Neftochimic Burgas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Neftochimic Burgas 2–1 Minyor Radnevo

Neftochimic Burgas beat Minyor Radnevo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Lazur (Burgas).