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Neftochimic Burgas vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
FT
6 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
3/16/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 21Stadion Lazur (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas75%
×Draw16%
Karnobat9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftochimic Burgas
2.45
Karnobat
0.74

Neftochimic Burgas creates 231% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 118 away

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas
2.31
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas
0.69
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw
91%
Neftochimic Burgas or Karnobat
84%
Draw or Karnobat
25%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
52%
Karnobat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
91%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
70%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
44%
Karnobat 1+ goals
52%
Karnobat 2+ goals
17%
Karnobat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
89%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 2.31 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.45

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more
75%
level
16%
Karnobat scores more
9%

Neftochimic Burgas at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neftochimic Burgas 6 – 0 Karnobat

Neftochimic Burgas beat Karnobat 6-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lazur (Burgas).