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Neftchi vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
FT
2 – 1
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
11/18/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Neftçi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neftchi52%
×Draw23%
Zenit Saint Petersburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
1.79
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.17

Neftchi creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Neftchi
2.33
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.00

allows per match

Neftchi
1.33
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.25

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
75%
Neftchi or Zenit Saint Petersburg
77%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
48%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
29%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
83%
Neftchi 2+ goals
53%
Neftchi 3+ goals
26%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
69%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
33%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
68%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 2.33 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.00 + Neftchi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Neftchi scores more
52%
level
23%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
25%

Neftchi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Neftchi 2–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Neftchi beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Neftçi Arena in Baku.