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Neftchi vs Olmaliq — Super League 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
Preview
16:00
Olmaliq
Olmaliq
11/6/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Istiqlol Stadium
Big match
43%
Neftchi
model favours
43%27%30%

Olmaliq score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Neftchi43%
×Draw27%
Olmaliq30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
1.33
Olmaliq
1.06

Neftchi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 99 away

creates per match

Neftchi
1.57
Olmaliq
1.17

allows per match

Neftchi
0.95
Olmaliq
1.09

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Olmaliq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
70%
Neftchi or Olmaliq
73%
Draw or Olmaliq
57%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
20%
Olmaliq wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
74%
Neftchi 2+ goals
38%
Neftchi 3+ goals
15%
Olmaliq 1+ goals
65%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
29%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
59%
Olmaliq (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Olmaliq defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olmaliq attack 1.17 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neftchi scores more
43%
level
27%
Olmaliq scores more
30%

Neftchi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Olmaliq are unbeaten in 8 straight
  • Olmaliq win just 30% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Neftchi
WWLDW
Olmaliq
WWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Neftchi host Olmaliq

November 6, 2026: Neftchi take on Olmaliq in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Neftchi host Olmaliq at Istiqlol Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.