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Neftchi vs Dinamo Batumi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
2/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neftchi68%
×Draw18%
Dinamo Batumi14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
0.92

Neftchi creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Neftchi
2.33
Dinamo Batumi
0.50

allows per match

Neftchi
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
2.25

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
86%
Neftchi or Dinamo Batumi
82%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
32%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
45%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
90%
Neftchi 2+ goals
66%
Neftchi 3+ goals
40%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
60%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
83%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 2.33 + Dinamo Batumi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Dinamo Batumi attack 0.50 + Neftchi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Neftchi scores more
68%
level
18%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
14%

Neftchi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Neftchi
Dinamo
Vitaliy Levchenko
Manager: Vitaliy Levchenko
Giorgi Chiabrishvili
Manager: Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Match Recap: Neftchi vs Dinamo Batumi

Neftchi beat Dinamo Batumi 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 10, 2026.