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Neftchi vs Debreceni VSC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
CANC
14:00
Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC
1/15/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neftchi47%
×Draw23%
Debreceni VSC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
1.75
Debreceni VSC
1.33

Neftchi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Neftchi
2.33
Debreceni VSC
1.33

allows per match

Neftchi
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.17

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Debreceni VSC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Debreceni VSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
71%
Neftchi or Debreceni VSC
77%
Draw or Debreceni VSC
53%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
25%
Debreceni VSC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
83%
Neftchi 2+ goals
52%
Neftchi 3+ goals
25%
Debreceni VSC 1+ goals
74%
Debreceni VSC 2+ goals
38%
Debreceni VSC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
62%
Debreceni VSC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Debreceni VSC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 2.33 + Debreceni VSC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Debreceni VSC attack 1.33 + Neftchi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Neftchi scores more
47%
level
23%
Debreceni VSC scores more
29%

Neftchi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Neftchi host Debreceni VSC

January 15, 2023: Neftchi take on Debreceni VSC in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.